Our monthly property market review is intended to provide background to recent developments in property markets as well as to give an indication of how some key issues could impact in the future.
We are not responsible or authorised to provide advice on investment decisions concerning property, only for the provision of mortgage advice. We hope you will find this review to be of interest.
Spring Budget – ‘trailblazer’ deals announced
In the Spring Budget on 15 March, as part of the Levelling Up White Paper, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced ‘trailblazer’ deals giving new and deeper devolution powers to local leaders in the Greater Manchester and West Midlands Combined Authorities.
For the first time outside of London, local leaders will now be able to set the strategic direction over the Affordable Housing Programme (AHP) in their areas. These two combined authorities will receive powers in a two-staged approach, initially having partial powers which will ensure the current 2021-26 AHP, which is overseen by Homes England, can be delivered.
After 2026, for any new AHP funding, these combined authorities will gain more powers, including directing Homes England to identify and bring forward sites for housing and to partner with providers. Homes England will still play a role in administering the programme, unlike in London.
Cautious boost for buyer enquiries
A more stable picture is emerging for the rest of 2023, according to the latest UK Residential Survey from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), despite a generally downbeat overall trend last month.
The headline reading for new buyer enquiries rebounded to a net balance of -29% (on a seasonally adjusted basis), a significant leap from -45% in January. Although this is a tenth consecutive negative monthly reading, it is also the least negative result since July 2022.
The new sales indicator was also less negative in February (-26%) than it had been a month earlier (-36%). In contrast, the average time taken to complete sales rose again to almost 19 weeks.
Commenting on the latest survey, Tarrant Parsons, Senior Economist at RICS, said, “The housing market continues to adjust to the tighter lending climate, with stretched mortgage affordability still weighing heavily on activity. Going forward… the latest survey feedback shows tentative signs that the ongoing decline in buyer enquiries is now moderating.”
Soaring rents push people out of London
The flight of workers from London will cause businesses to suffer, industry bodies have warned, as soaring rents continue to drive people out of the capital.
Strong rental demand has pushed London rents 20% higher in the last year, according to Foxtons, with the lack of options in the capital now forcing renters to move further out of the city in order to find a suitable place to live. In the same period, average house prices have fallen by 0.9%, according to Halifax, highlighting the difficulties renters have faced.
In trying economic conditions, more than half of landlords still plan to raise rents further to absorb extra costs. Some 63% of renters expressed concern or strong concern about how rising interest rates could affect their monthly rental payments in a recent survey by Finbri.
House prices: Headline statistics
| House Price Index (Jan 2023) | 152 |
| Average House Price | £289,819 |
| Monthly Change | -1.1% |
| Annual Change | 6.3% |
*(Jan 2015 = 100)
Average house prices in the UK increased by 6.3% in the year to January 2023
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average UK house prices decreased by 1.1% between December 2022 and January 2023
The average price in London was £533,986 in January 2023
Source: The Land Registry
Release date: 22/03/23
Next data release: 19/04/23
Average monthly price by property type – January 2023
| Property Type | Annual Increase |
|---|---|
| Detached £458,066 | 6.8% |
| Semi-detached £282,643 | 7.5% |
| Terraced £237,057 | 7.0% |
| Flat / maisonette £227,951 | 6.3% |
Source: The Land Registry
Release date: 22/03/23
House prices: Price change by region
| Region | Monthly change (%) | change (%) | Average price (£) |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | -1.2% | 6.9% | £310,159 |
| Northern Ireland (Quarter 4 - 2022) | -0.5% | 10.2% | £175,234 |
| Scotland | -0.5% | 1.0% | £185,016 |
| Wales | -2.3% | 5.8% | £216,871 |
| East Midlands | -1.7% | 8.6% | £251,177 |
| East of England | -1.1% | 6.8% | £358,114 |
| London | -1.0% | 3.2% | £533,986 |
| North East | 0.6% | 10.0% | £163,371 |
| North West | -2.4% | 7.2% | £214,431 |
| South East | -1.2% | 6.3% | £398,368 |
| South West | -0.4% | 7.1% | £329,691 |
| West Midlands Region | 0.2% | 9.9% | £256,694 |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | -2.5% | 6.5% | £207,635 |
Source: The Land Registry
Release date: 22/03/23
Next data release: 19/04/23
Housing market outlook
“The recent run of weak house price data began with the financial market turbulence in response to the mini-Budget at the end of September last year. While financial market conditions normalised some time ago, housing market activity has remained subdued. Inflation has continued to outpace wage growth and mortgage rates remain significantly higher than the lows recorded in 2021. Even though consumer sentiment has improved in recent months, it is still languishing at levels prevailing during the depths of the financial crisis.”
Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist
Source: Nationwide, February 2023
Important Information
All details are correct at the time of writing (22 March 2023).
Contains HM Land Registry data © Crown copyright and database right 2023. This data is licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK.
Approver Quilter Financial Services Limited & Quilter Mortgage Planning Limited. 04/04/23.
